New York Baseball 2003: The Mets suck and Derek Jeter is overrated
May 19, 2003
by Alexander Washburn

My Mets are in a free fall – so all I’m doing is awaiting the day when Steve Phillips is no longer the General Manager and Art Howe is no longer the manager. Phillips has made too many shortsighted moves like the signings of Mo Vaughn, Roger Cedeno, Shawn Estes, has been too quick to cast off young talent like Jason Isringhausen, and played the good guy to Bobby Valentine’s bad guy – when in fact they’re both assholes. Art Howe deserves to go because well, he can’t coach. Spare me the Oakland success story, Howe was always the Mets second choice behind Sweet Lou and is way too timid of a manager for New York baseball. He has no fire, no passion and that shows in the way he manages a game. These Mets, despite speed, don’t run. I’m not talking stolen bases, but putting the runners in motion to avoid inning ending double plays. To see a team that has trouble scoring runs playing baseball one base at a time is no way to manage a team.

One of my favorite pastimes dealing with the national pastime is uncovering more testimony that speaks to the fact that NY Yankee shortstop is not only over-rated but no lock for the Hall of Fame.

I like Jeter. I love the tough, all-out way he plays the game. He is a great ambassador for the game and in these times we have to appreciate a kid millionaire who hasn’t been led away in handcuffs yet. It is a credit to Jeter, the person and the athlete, that we’ll never open up the NY Daily News and see his mug shot on the back page. We’ve seen this in countless NY athletes: Wells, Strawberry, Gooden, Billy Martin – but Jeter is a class act and conducts his life as he plays the game – with integrity and respect. Plus, the Saturday Night Live ‘Derek Jeter’s Taco Hole’ from back when he hosted last year, is among the highlights of that faded shows last five years.

I have read arguments that question Jeter’s greatness before: most notably from Joel Sherman, the baseball writer for the New York Post. Sherman likes the Yankees but has called Jeter overrated and the day after his return to pinstripes after a stint on the DL, Sherman in a glowing welcome back to Jeter, also took time to write: “There is a fervor among the statistical true believers that the game could be coldly solved at a computer terminal. And that forgets that humans actually produce the numbers. And while those numbers show Jeter has slipped further from the elite shortstops on offense and always ranks among the least rangy on defense, it does not reveal how he makes his club feel.”

I headed over the ESPN for more testimony and came across a great piece by web writer Rob Nayer. Now, it’s clear that Nayer had a Jim Rice jersey growing up but his facts are dead on regardless of his personal feelings. Nayer tested defensive statistics on other Yankee shortstops and concluded that Jeter is no better than his backups. Nayer writes: “Compare Jeter’s defensive statistics to the other Yankees who played shortstop since he’s been on the team. If Jeter were really outstanding, as many people seemed to think, wouldn’t he have better statistics than his backups? But in fact, he did not. The other Yankee shortstops, none of them considered brilliant defensive players, actually combines to post slightly better numbers than Jeter.” Ouch.

Jeter doesn’t just rank below his fellow Yankee shortstops he fails in defensive comparison to all Major League Baseball shortstops. Taking a look at the ultimate fielding statistic: in Range Factor (which equals putouts plus assists per nine innings) we see objective evidence that deflates the Jeter myth. Over the last five years, among shortstops who have started at least 100 games, the best Jeter has ranked is 16 out of 24, which he did in 1997. He ranked fourth lowest in 1996 (out of 24) and was second from the bottom in 1998. In three of the last five years, Derek Jeter ranked last among Major League Baseball shortstops in Range Factor.

Taking a look at Jeter’s offensive numbers we see a steady decline in production over the years. Since hitting a career high of .347 in 1999, Jeter’s average has dropped consistently, and last year he ended up hitting under .300. His Slugging Percentage has also fallen every year hitting only .421 last year, compared to .552 in 1998. Home runs are down: 24 in 1998 to 18 in 2002. RBI’s are down: 102 in 1999 to 75 in 2002. Jeter is walking less, with just 91 free passes last year and striking out more – whiffing 114 times last year – his highest since 1999. Jeter hasn’t had a 200 hit season in three years.

Where Jeter is on the decline – some shortstops are on the upswing. It’s no longer necessary to compare Jeter to A-Rod and Nomar – there is no comparison. Jeter has to contend with raising star shortstops like Edgar Renteria – who in the last three years has risen in categories where Jeter has declined. Renteria hitting has improved consistently and hit .300 last year and has started off this season at .364. Last year, he had more RBI’s, a higher on-base percentage and slugging percentage than Jeter.

So, what about all them World Series rings? Damn impressive if you ask me. Jeter, unlike all the others I’ve mentioned, has won and won consistently. It’s a testament to him as a player but more to the team assembled in the Bronx during that magical run. But, World Series rings cannot be the only reason Jeter makes the Hall of Fame. David Cone has the rings as well but since he will never achieve those ever-important Hall of Fame markers: 300 wins, 3,000 strikeouts etc. Cone, with all his rings and Cy Young award, won’t get voted into the Hall. Same goes for Chuck Knoblauch, a career .289 (where it looks like Jeter is ending up) who has the same amount of rings as Jeter and was a dominate player for a number of seasons. He too, won’t make the Hall of Fame.

Overrated? Yes. Hall of Famer? No. An amazing baseball player that it’s a pleasure to watch? Hell yes. It’s hard, when you look at the facts objectively to say that Derek Jeter is among the best shortstops in best baseball. And even though he has all the qualities that say greatness, he will not take a seat among the baseball immortals in Cooperstown.

(Alexander Washburn is a volunteer staff writer for 2 Walls Webzine)

Jeter on track for Cooperstown
(Response to: The Mets suck and Derek Jeter is overrated)
May 23, 2003
by David Brown

I’ll be the first to admit, A-Rod and Nomar are better hitters than Derek Jeter. (Don’t talk to me about Miguel Tejada – he’s the same age as the rest of these guys and he’s a .265 hitter lifetime. And he’s batting .210 so far this season.) A-Rod is in a class by himself, the best player in baseball right now. And Nomar has proven himself to be among the game’s best hitters year in and year out. But that doesn’t mean Derek Jeter isn’t one of the best shortstops in baseball. And it doesn’t mean he won’t end up in Cooperstown.

Hall of Fame voters look at what a player does over the course of his career, not at what he did for a few years. So let’s look at his career stats. He has a .317 lifetime batting average, averaging 17 HR and 83 RBI per 162 games (mostly from the 2nd spot in the batting order). He averages 124 runs, 206 hits, 25 stolen bases and 32 doubles a year. His lifetime on-base percentage is .389, and he’s finished in the top 7 in the AL in both runs and hits every year since 1997.

Add to that 5 All-Star appearances, a rookie of the year award, four World Championships, and a World Series MVP award in 2000. And in 82 post-season games he has a .314 average with 11 home runs.

He’s 28 years old and he plays for a perennial winner.

Based on seven full seasons in the majors as a shortstop, Jeter has strong Hall of Fame credentials. If he can carry those averages through to the end of his career, he’ll be a lock for the first ballot. And the key is his position as a shortstop.

Look at the list of Hall of Fame shortstops. The only the only Hall of Fame shortstops who played within the last 30 years are are Robin Yount and Ozzie Smith. Cal Ripken is a shoe-in when he becomes eligible. The current crop of shortstops has spoiled us. Very few players over the course of baseball history have been able to field that position and hit the ball as well as Jeter.

Statistically, a good player of comparison for Jeter is Barry Larkin. Larkin’s career averages: .295, 15 HR, 72 RBI, 100 runs, 176 hits, 33 doubles, 30 SB, and an MVP award in 1995. Pretty strong numbers for a shortstop over 17 seasons. But keep in mind, Larkin never had a 200 hit season, and he doesn’t have the postseason pedigree of Jeter (despite winning a ring in 1990). But give the defensive edge to Larkin for his 3 Gold Glove awards. Larkin is by no means a lock for Cooperstown, but he’s going to get plenty of votes. My guess is he will make it, even if it takes more than a few ballots.

As for Jeter’s fielding, I was enlightened by Rob Neyer’s article on ESPN.com. Jeter is not an outstanding defensive shortstop. Statistically, he is average at best. But shortstop is a position that requires an everyday player to be very good. Guys who can’t field that position don’t stay there long. I would argue that anybody who has a long career at short is by definition a good defensive shortstop because if they weren’t, they wouldn’t be there. Whatever the case, Jeter gets the job done, despite the fact that he doesn’t have the range of his counterparts.

Regardless of whether or not you consider Jeter subpar with the glove, his offense more than makes up for it. While his numbers might have fallen off, it’s likely that they will pick back up before leveling off again. To compare him to Edgar Renteria might make sense based on last season, but not over a career. Renteria’s lifetime batting average is .286! I’ll admit he’s one of the better shortstops in the league, but he’s got some work to do if he wants to make it to Cooperstown. Jeter just has to keep pace with what he’s done his whole career.

The intangible factor that Jeter brings to his team is tough to discount. It obviously can’t be quantified with statistics, but his style of play will no doubt help his cause, and it should. Plus, he is one of the best in the game at doing all the little things: getting from first to third on a single to right field, advancing the runner with a sacrifice, executing the hit and run. Perhaps more importantly, his postseason performance may solidify his spot in Cooperstown. Athletes are ultimately judged by their postseason success. Jeter has plenty of that to put him over the top. He’s still got a lot of years left, and he’ll have to prove his value over that time. I suspect he’ll leave few doubts about his legacy when his career is finally over.

(David Brown is a volunteer staff writer for 2 Walls Webzine)