The Deep End of the Football Pool
September 15, 2004
by Mike Webb

The single most ridiculous thing I do every football season is get involved in a football pool. Actually, it’s not just “a” football pool, but usually two. And it’s stupid because no matter how much you know about football, it’s a 50-50 proposition that you’ll win.

For the uninitiated, football pools are a list of all the games going on that week and you have to guess which team will win, and generally how much you think they’ll win by. For example, when the 2004 season begins, the Steelers will probably be favored to beat the Raiders by 2.5 points. Why? Because small time and big time gamblers bet huge sums of cash in Las Vegas generally based on hunches. Sure injuries, offensive approaches, home or away affect the outcomes, but not to the point where you know the Steelers will beat the Raiders by 3 points in a game. All Vegas cares about is making money, so the point spreads they assign simply come by finding the spread number that half the betters will be for and half will bet against. Vegas essentially breaks even, plus the amount they charged you to place the bet. So sometimes you lose and sometimes you win.

Yet year after year I get in these stupid football pools. It started because I thought I knew so much about football that this would be easy and I would always win. But I came to find no matter how much you know about the sport, you can not predictably bet on who will win and by how much. It’s a 50-50 crap shoot. Sure there are tendencies and basic rules to follow, but just as the ball bounces in a funny way on the field, the pool will drown suckers who are sure they can swim.

So why do I bother? I have no idea other than I’m fond of wasting time and money on football. It’s been my favorite sport since I was 4 or 5 years old and I guess I’m an addict. Actually, I think I got hooked on football pools in 1995 when I won the pool (and $400). I couldn’t really attribute it to anything other than the fact that I always picked my favorite team (the Pittsburgh Steelers) and they must have covered the spread a lot of times because they went to the Super Bowl that year. And once you have a little gambling success, you get the big head and think you’re unbeatable. But you’re not because the AZ Cardinals will cover a 21 point spread by one when they play the Patriots.

So all you point spread football poolers out there – no matter what you know, no matter how closely you follow the game, you’ve got a 50% chance of getting it right. Which means a 3-year-old child has the same chance as you of winning? Kinda ridiculous isn’t it? So save your cash and your time and just sit back and enjoy the games.

(Mike Webb is a volunteer staff writer for 2 Walls Webzine)