( 1:55 AM )
Owner Of A Lonely Heart
Somewhere during the last 2 weeks, the key campaign issue turned to who can beat Bush in Nov. 2004. And the answer is no one knows. Until you know the landscape of the election, we'll never know. Has there been, god forbid, another terrorist attack? Have any jobs been added to the economy to replace the 3 million or so lost during W's reign? Will Karl Rove have been indicted in the CIA agent outing? Will we have found out that John Kerry flavors his eggs with Heinz catsup? Or maybe we'll find out John Edwards' great great great great great granddaddy owned slaves and will lose the black vote.
Whatever. But guessing which Dem can beat Bush is fruitless and stupid. The polls will tell you one thing under one set of circumstances, and another one week later. It can't be predicted, so it shouldn't really be taken into consideration. With the exceptions of Sharpton and Kucinich, any Dem candidate could get 45% of the vote. Pick the right electoral college formula, have a good message and run an overall good campaign, and you'll pick up 5-10% more of voters and be the next President.
Kerry is 'JFK' presidential. Clark is the Eisenhower military leader. Edwards is the Clinton-slick Southerner. And Dean is the down-but-not-out-Nixon comeback fighter. All of those qualities have won presidential elections in the past, and any of them could get America out of the Bushes. But voters basing their primary decision on the who can win question are setting themselves up for disaster. So my advice is to trust your heart and pull the lever for the one that's making the most sense to you. Aaaaaaiiiight.
PS - now that this ex-Buckeye knows that Tom Brady is an ex-Michigan QB, playing for one of my most-hated AFC teams, and is a Bush-supporting moron, I finally found a stupid reason to root for the Carolina Panthers in the Super Bowl....
( 1:41 AM )
Breakdown
I'm watching John Edwards speak in a restaurant in Nashua, NH on C-SPAN and he's doing a pretty good job. C-SPAN is awesome for their unadulterated coverage of the campaign. People in NH are used to getting an up close look at the candidates, and they actually ask very good questions, so it's nice to see grown up, unbiased coverage on C-SPAN .
Which leads me to Howard Dean. Yes, Dean gave a very strange, over-the-top speech in IA Monday night, but should it really be a campaign killer? The guy was speaking to a room full of disappointed campaign workers and it was his job to keep them pumped up and optimistic. Sure he looked a little insane, and some of the coverage has been funny. But too many people are saying his campaign is through and one speech does not a campaign make. People are forgetting what fueled his campaign in the first place, so it feels like a pile on by the press to smother the spark that ignited his crusade.
Dean's said and done some things out of the norm, but more times than not I still like what he has to say. We're not safer now that Saddam is in captivity. We do need campaign finance reform and better health care. The Iowa caucuses are screwy. The President did lie about Iraq. And it's good that he's motivated so many young people to get involved in the political process. So writing Dean off is an affront to his supporters and the people who are just now tuning in.
Kerry, Clark, Edwards, Dean, Sharton or Dennis - it doesn't really matter. We'll be lucky if any of them can deliver on one campaign promise, let alone the many others they've offered. But let's have a fair process that winnows it down to the best person.
( 12:20 AM )
Tell It To Carrie
Ok - so I was so far off on the Iowa caucuses that you've learned that I have no clue as to what I'm talking about. Organization is supposed to mean everything in the IA caucuses, and I bought into Dean & Geppie allegedly having the best "organizations." Whatcha gonna do, shoot me?
CNN's idiot talking head Bill Schneider thinks Dean lost because of Saddam's capture. The polls tell us Dean lost because the 1/3 of people that were undecided broke to Kerry & Edwards. And I'll tell you that Dean lost because of his remarks that the IA caucuses were stupid because of the influence of special interests. The polls started to change the weekend after Dean's comments to Canadian TV were broadcast and it looks like Howard's foot got stuck in his rear instead of his mouth.
So even though this screws up the scenario I laid out, and once again proves you can't predict how these things will lay out, I'm standing by my GUESSES and making yet another prognostication. The Democrats should hope that this drags on as long as possible so that they can stay in the news and help shape and frame the debate. It won't be about the actual issues that affect your lives, but if it drags on long enough maybe people will be able to name the contender's names.
( 2:58 PM )
By The Time I Get To Arizona
I try not to respond to most things written on 2Walls because everyone has the right to write whatever they think. But Mike Spinney's MLK piece is so wildly off the mark that I couldn't help myself.
If I understand Spinney correctly, I think he was trying to make a point about the overcommercialization of Christmas and Easter. Although that's true, what does that have to do with MLK? People go to church every Sunday to worship Jesus, and somehow I missed the weekly service/event that's held to remember Dr. King. The guy essentially gets one weekend a year to be remembered and I'm sorry if you think that one weekend is such an imposition on YOUR lord and savior.
I hope that it's more than an act of political correctness to acknowledge a man who actually had to teach America through non-violent methods that minorities should have the same rights and legal protections as non-minorities. And I'm certain that today's civil rights leaders (whoever they are) wouldn't give a damn about Walmart having a sale in MLK's name. It's more likely that they (and MLK) would shout "cleverly rhymed race-baiting slogans" at Walmart because they refuse to pay their employees a fair wage, or let them organize, or illegally force them to work overtime - but not because all mittens are 10% off on King Day.
I think the thing we need to remember here is that everyone has different beliefs about religion. Personally, I hope that people find a way to have spirituality in their lives, but I don't care if your top dawg is Muhammad, Buddha, Halle Berry or Hey-Zeus Christ. So I get annoyed when people get all consumed by their religion and forget that America is the land of the free to worship any way we want to as long as it's not forced upon us by the government.
I'm not calling Spinney a religious fanatic, but his anti-gay marriage article also leaves me cold because I believe any love is good love (yes Mr. Jackson - among consenting adults). I thought by now we'd all seen the 200 episodes of the uptight character on the Real World who doesn't like gay people, but after they get to know "the content of their character", the gay person becomes the uptight one's best friend by the end of the show. If in your heart you feel that homosexuality is "bad," then have faith in your God to deal with the person as he/she/it feels on "Judgment Day." I see no reason why people who like to have sex in a different manner than I do should not be able to celebrate their love in a marriage ceremony and be entitled to equal protection under the law that all Americans (and humans) are entitlted to.
I think Spinney's passion for God clouds his thinking. And while I have much respect for him to live his life according to his religious beliefs, my beliefs are very different from his and neither one of ours should trump the others.
Webb
PS - Check out Mista Chuck D's infamous threat to make MLK Day a holiday in Arizona at www.publicenemy.com. "I urinated on the state while I was kickin' this song...."
( 11:46 PM )
Lady
About 5 hours before Mike Walls posted my primary predictions, Carol Moseley-Braun proved one wrong by dropping out and endorsing Howard Dean. Of course some of these guesses were destined to be wrong, but before they were even posted? Somehow I didn't let the fact that CMB had no money, no big name backing, little organization, and was the wrong gender get in the way of thinking that she wanted to go to the convention and make a speech. What the hell was the point of her campaign if she wasn't gunning for that moment in the spotlight? I like Moseley-Braun and think she's a classy lady, but her presidential bid seems to have a been a pointless exercise in wedging the black vote from Al Sharpton. Sigh.
What's worse is that the tracking polls are allegedly showing John Kerry making a comeback in Iowa. If that's true - and my flip-flop hunch is that it is - then that practically destroys all of my prognostications. But now is not the time to go running scared. It's in the media's interest to make it seem like this is a close race, but I still strongly doubt that it is. Well, sometime in the next 6 weeks, we'll probably know. (I already can't wait for the end of the year so I can look back on this to see how wrong I was!)
( 12:58 AM )
Seven Nation Army
Oh boy. Long, but productive week. Good stuff at work. Jammin' with Chris & Mel and my new Les Paul. Trying to get together some things for 2Walls, including our own Best of 2003 album list. Enjoying some terrific playoff football games. Celebrating birthdays. Trying to download Prince's "Sexy MF" video. And watching tonight's more-heated-than-normal Dem debate. So lots going on in this weary head.
But the thing that's been heavy on my mind this week is the White Stripes. I've been skimming some other music mag best of lists and there's a LOT of love for the WP's Elephant album and the song "Seven Nation Army." Now I LIKE the album. I don't think it's the great album that most people seem to believe it to be, and if it made my top 10 for 2003 it would only be because there was so much mediocre stuff out there.
But is "Seven Nation Army" really "unbelievably savage," "violent, despairing sound of a hunted man," "haunting," and "breathtaking"?. C'mon. It's a dull, repetitive, Cream-like hand-me-down that's not nearly as exciting as it could be. The chord progression repeats over the course of the whole song. The addition of a bass line does nothing to improve the song. And it's not like Meg & Jack are marinating hot chops on the drums and guitar. It's just an average song that serves as an appropriate opener for an average album.
From my point of view, 2003 was a bad year for music as there just weren't a lot of things that changed my blood pressue. So if Elephant was the best the year had to offer, here's going back to 2002 when there were at least a half dozen bands that put the boogie in my oogie.
( 4:30 PM )
Just Do It
Yo peeps - it's Sunday and it's time to get back to regular Sunday blogging. But first - I hope you all had a safe and wonderful new year.
Now, onto the insanity. There's a Democratic candidates debate on Fox News right now, which just happens to coincide with the NFL playoffs. There were also debates held during the MLB playoffs. Does this give anyone the feeling that the people who organize the debates (the Democratic Party) don't actually want people to watch the debates?
My time is too precious to keep watching these guys - cause the football playoffs are on, c'mon - so I'm about to go back to the Green Bay overtime game. But I just have to note that Joe Lieberman has saved his most passionate criticisms for members of the Democratic Party instead of his "rival" Republicans. C'mon Joe, lose with dignity.
So that's it. I'm working on various things for 2Walls like an end of the year record poll, a political calendar, and my own personal predictions for the big twenty oh four. So I'll be back with much more.
In the meantime, congrats to the much underrated Ohio State Buckeyes who were victorious underdogs in the Fiesta Bowl (again). I LOVE it when people underestimate you. And to my beloved Pittsburgh Steelers - Coach Cowher, you had the talent, but your boys didn't make very many plays. Plus you have an immobile quarterback who is at best a backup. It looks like you're going to have to do a degree of rebuilding this year, which could delay a return to the playoffs. But you should've had enough talent to make the playoffs this season. So I'm not sure you're on the hot seat, but c'mon babe - make something happen. Billick's doing it with you guys in Baltimore, and you're a much better coach. So just do it Bill. Just do it.
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee
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