Reconsidering All Things (RAT)
January 15, 2004
by Mike Webb

A PRIMARY PRIMER

Oh so much to cover in this new year edition of RAT. Terror threats, under funded and failing schools, space missions and the beginnings of the unraveling of the Republican cohesiveness. But since it’s election season, this RAT is going to make its political prognostications for the primary season. Let the games begin…

Thing: Most people will tell you that the most crucial election this year is the presidential race. The party that holds the executive branch will set the agenda for the next several years, and if Bush wins there’s no reason to think he’ll ease back on the hard right turn he’s taken America on.

Reconsideration: Sorry, but the most important election this year is any election that the Democrats can win. With the Republicans enjoying a 51-48 advantage in the Senate (one independent) and a 229-205 advantage in the House (with one indy, and one vacancy), winning control of any federal or state legislative or executive body could lead to a “normalization” of government policy.

Conventional Wisdom: Although RAT has often advised against it, since you seem set on getting your political news from 2Walls let us explain what other media outlets will tell you about the election. First, Howard Dean is the leading contender for the Democratic nomination. Second, someone will emerge as the “stop Dean” candidate. And third, poll after poll will tell you one candidate is rising while another is falling. Under normal circumstances, all of the above would be true and correct, but there’s nothing normal about this election because the survival of the US Constitution is at stake. Therefore, you can throw all the conventional wisdom out the door.

RAT Wisdom: So here’s the real deal on how things will play out. Dean is indeed the leader – winning in fund raising, organization (people willing to work for him), and general media coverage (he was one week away from scoring the triple facial having been on the cover of both Time and Newsweek last week and US News & World Report this week). But the myth is that someone is going to stop him or become the anti-Dean candidate. Upon closer inspection, RAT sees:

Richard Gephardt is rightly betting the farm on Iowa and with Dean second-thinking sinking in, he’ll most likely win its caucuses like he did in 1988. Starting next Tuesday there will be millions of wrong stories proclaiming Dean’s campaign dead or in deep trouble, but Iowa will be the last time that Dick is on top. At best Geppie places 3rd in NH and most likely 4th (behind Dean, Clark and Kerry in that order). SC and AZ are the next big primaries on Feb. 3 and they’re both wildcard states (i.e., still up for grabs). But this is where the “People-Powered-Howard” victory tour begins because his fundraising and organizational advantages will keep the good Dick down and out of the race by the following week.

One time “frontrunner” John Kerry thinks that firing his campaign manager is an example of leadership. Sorry John John, but it’s actually an example of desperation and you dug your grave when you gave Bush your battle ax and permission to attack Iraq. A likely 3rd place finish in Iowa won’t help your likely 3rd place finish in NH and it’s likely that you’ll be out of the race by the 3rd contest.

John Edwards’ betrayal of the Democratic Party is almost as deep as Joe Lieberman’s, but he actually had a shot at winning at one time, so he can be forgiven. While the Edwards campaign is trying to spin its Des Moines Register endorsement and probable surprise finish of 3rd in Iowa (ok – my mind’s eye is wearing shades and it’s hard to see just whose dashing hairdo is standing tall in 3rd place) RAT doesn’t buy much of the momentum theory. Edwards 4th place finishes won’t inspire neighboring South Carolinians to support him either. Although the senator was a decent fundraiser, his best bet at winning an election would be to transfer that cash to a NC senate campaign that his party desperately needs to win.

Lieberman. Sorry Joe, but you’re running in a Democratic primary campaign, not a national campaign. Joey’s only real asset was his name recognition from the 2000 campaign, but the party faithful are looking for a real Democrat, not a kinder-gentler Republican who’s criticized Democrats more than he’s criticized the President. His sudden Clinton-loving stance is as ridiculous as his Clinton-bashing during the Lewinsky scandal. Lieberman dropped out of Iowa because he knew he couldn’t win, and he won’t even finish top 3 in neighboring NH or anywhere else. There’s no love for the Lieb in the South or the Southwest which leaves RAT to wish on where Joe should go with that gun in his hand.

Kucinich / Sharpton / Moseley-Braun. Somehow one of the three true progressive candidates in the primaries should have been positioned to win. Party activists tend to be the active voters in primaries and these three have consistently articulated lofty Lefty ideas that Dems could rally ‘round. But this campaign has been about defeating Bush from the git-go and somehow the lunatic left fringe (that RAT firmly resides in) realized early on that a position bending, moderate, formidable fundraiser is the only shot we’ve got at getting our country out of the Bushes. Kucinich, however, will finish very strong in Iowa (probably 4th). Sharpton will finish top 3 in SC. And Braun’s offer of female leadership is just what this country needs right now, but won’t get as she will only be on the ballots in about half of the contests. Look for all three to go all the way to the convention though.

Which leaves Gen. Wesley Clark. While RAT is well known for his political prognostications, he just can’t see if the winds are gonna get behind Clark’s big guns. Clark wisely opted out of the the Iowa caucuses (caucuses require people to publicly stand up and explain why they’re supporting a candidate. Having union support is key to winning caucus states and it was too late in the game for him to be competitive at all). And since he has no real baggage (other than statements of what a great job Bush was doing as President), he’s the tabla rasa the anti-Deans are likely to pin their hopes on. Wes has the cash and name recognition to make it beyond NH, and RAT suspects a top two finish in SC. But the Democratic Party set the primary schedule up so that the campaign would be over by the March 2 Super Duper Tuesday vote which will play out like this: California/Dean, Connecticut/Dean, Georgia/Clark, Maryland/Clark, Massachusetts/Dean, New York/Dean, Ohio/Dean, Rhode Island/Dean, Vermont/Duh and Minnesota Caucuses/Dean. Do the math – it takes 2169 delegates to win the contest, and Clark’s 155 delegates from his two wins just ain’t gonna add up to a presidential nomination.

On March 3, 2004, Howard Dean will unofficially become the Democratic Party’s candidate for President of the United States of America.

District Primary: As RAT went to press, Howard Dean led in the Washington DC primary. Because it was held before the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire primary, it’s not officially sanctioned by the Democratic Party. Rev. Al Sharpton, Carol Moseley-Braun and Rep. Dennis Kucinich were 2-4 because the other candidates dropped off the ballot so as not to offend the other states.

State Primary: Besides NH’s “Live Free or Die” motto, RAT’s 2nd favorite motto is Washington DC’s license plate tag “Taxation Without Representation.” The good people of DC, who pay taxes like you and me, aren’t represented in Congress like you and me because Congress won’t allow it. RAT won’t go on a tirade about it being because it’s dominated by African-Americans who would likely send 3 black Democratic representatives to Congress because it’s self evident. However, shouldn’t we at least let them skate on paying taxes just to be fair?

Schedule: RAT was considering putting up a schedule of the upcoming campaign events so that you would know when to watch the debates and figure out who the hell to vote for.

Reschedule: Instead of copying the information from ABC News’ “The Note” website, we’ll just provide you with a link so that you can check it out yourself and get The Note’s take on the important campaign info you need to know. (Go to the bottom of the page for the calendar.)

(Mike Webb is a volunteer staff writer for 2 Walls Webzine)