Move over Tim Russert: Election Day Predictions
October 2002
by Alexander Washburn and Mike Webb

This week, we have the guys of Crossfire in our crosshairs and we're going to show you how a few people that know absolutely nothing about politics play Hardball. Through careful research and too many days on the couch, we've realized that all you need these days to become a political commentator is half a brain and a forum to get your message out. Well, between 2 Walls Webzine staff writers, Alexander Washburn and Mike Webb, we've accumulated a half a brain, and 2Walls.com provides the forum. So let's get down to picking who's going to Washington, who's going home, which party will be in power or which will be whining from the sidelines. Election Day is near and here are our picks…

1. Will the Republicans Control Both Houses of Congress?

Alexander Washburn (AW): Democrats will keep a small advantage but when you have traitors like Zell Miller from Georgia on your side nothing is a safe bet. In the event of a GOP Election Day sweep, look for the Dems to pick off Rhode Island's Lincoln Chafee from the GOP side and dangle a chairmanship in his face.

Mike Webb (MW): Republicans will continue to drive the House down the wrong road. Even though the public would probably be more comfortable with a Democratic agenda (whatever that is), the Republican incumbency advantage should do the trick. Look for the Dems to gain 2 more seats. The Senate side will be a push. Since Minnesota is out of play now, the R's pick up Missou, while the D's get Arkansas back.

2. North Carolina Senate: Elizabeth Dole versus Erskine Bowles

AW: Dole has been lackluster in her campaign and Bowles has been following her lead. He actually ran an ad that talked about getting glasses for children. Not sure which is more of a negative; having worked for Clinton or being married to Bob Dole. Bowles in a photo finish.

MW: My hunch is that Dole keeps this seat in the Republican column. Any state that's stupid enough to keep Jesse Helms as their senator for this long certainly isn't going to switch now. But I would like to know if Erkine played the Clinton card - has Big Willie Styles been campaigning and raising money for him, or just diddling his female campaign staffers?

3. New Jersey Senate: Frank Lautenberg versus Doug Forrester

AW: Late fill-in for the ethically challenged Bob Torricelli, Lautenberg just retired from the Senate and NJ knows him all too well. Forrester lost his reason for existence when Torricelli dropped out and has been returned to the right wing nut job that he is. Big question will NJ voters not want to look bad by going with the last minute replacement. The state gets laughed at enough, what's one more bad thing going to do. Lautenberg.

MW: Instead of defining himself, Forrester told us the sky was blue (i.e., Torricelli was corrupt). So if the choice is the freaky conservative, or the kindly granddad that you voted for in the past, gramps wins it hands down.

4. Texas Senate: Ron Kirk versus John Cornyn

AW: A blow to Bush in his home state would do a lot to soften Bush's popularity. But this is reality, not Fantasyland. Kirk is good, moderate but he is also black, a Democrat and, according to his opponent and the press, a huge N.W.A. fan. That's oil and water in Texas folks - it doesn't mix. But hell, we gotta overcome sometime, Kirk in a legally challenged photo finish.

MW: An African-American is running for senate and a Hispanic is running for governor. This is just too much to ask of wacky Texans. Although I dig the idea of running to minorities in the hopes of turning out their vote. My mind's eye sees the reverse happening because them Texans can't let them other fellas just take over whole goddarn state.

5. New York Governor: George Pataki versus H. Carl McCall

AW: The big question here is whether McCall will beat the Independent Party candidate and not Pataki, who is cruising to a third term. Two things you'd never thought you'd hear in New York. Democrats never had a chance and Andy Cuomo is actually smart for dropping out. The faithful come and rescue McCall from an embarrassing third place finish.

MW: I have to admit, Golisano turned my head when he started talking about legalization (I'll let you guess of what). But I have a problem with billionaires buying elections and giving themselves tax breaks. Which leaves me stuck with McCall. How bad could his NY Times interview have been for them to have endorsed Pataki instead of staying neutral. With his resume (poor, minister, Education Board president, politician, corporate VP), this guy could've been a role model for any young person. Instead he's run a lackluster, unfocused campaign that will end with Georgie Boy getting 44%, McCall with 31%, and Goli with 24% ("minor party" candidates get the rest).

6. California Governor: Gray Davis versus Bill Simon

AW: Simon might as well be the Taliban because nobody, not swing Democrats or conservative Republicans want to go near this guy. His campaign has assured us of one thing, that regrettably we haven't heard the last of Gray Davis. When the front-runners of the 2004 Presidential race start coming into focus, look for Davis to head the list. If you got anything left in your 401(k) bet it on Davis in a landslide.

MW: Nobody in California actually LIKES Davis, they just don't have a choice this time around. Even though Gray (can America really stand a president named Gray?), is a formidable fundraiser, the minute 'Fornians have a chance to set him back in a primary they will. Cali still blames Mr. Colorful for the energy crisis, but the Republicans picked the worst possible candidate (anti abortion, pro gun) - you can't be on the wrong side of the state's 2 litmus test issues.

7. Minnesota Senate. Norm Coleman versus Walter Mondale

AW: Coleman and Wellstone ran one of the toughest campaigns in the nation. It wasn't exactly clean but it was gripping. That all changed when the world lost the great "Senator from Minnesota" in a plane crash. Now, Minnesota will step up to the plate and send his replacement to the Senate. Hopefully, they won't forget to hold that person's feet to the fire if they stray from the ideals that Wellstone laid down. Winning one for the coach, this seat stays Democrat.

MW: This is as sad as it gets. The last great champion of the left has gone to heaven and no one will truly be able to replace him. But look for Mondale to get the nod and keep the Wellstone spirit alive. This will be close because Minnesotans don't want to just give it to the Dems and Coleman was a popular mayor, but their liberal hearts will command their hands to pull the lever for Uncle Walt.

8. Missouri Senate. Jean Carnahan versus Jim Talent

AW: Like Wellstone this year, Carnahan got to the Senate when her husbands plane went down a few weeks before Election Day. Now she stands on her own record and for a Democrat, it ain't all that good. Votes with Bush so many times that Missouri isn't exactly missing John Ashcroft, who lost to the Carnahan's in 2000. Talent is from the 'Contract with America' school but in this Enron environment, too many people have forgotten that the planks in that Contract led to this accounting and corporate mess. Will voters remember to link Wellstone with the memory of Carnahan? She better hope so, or Talent takes the prize.

MW: I'm not following this race as closely as I'd like, but my instincts say the mourning period for Mr. Carnahan is over, and that these voters are going to turn against themselves. Any state that elected Ashcroft in the first place, can't have a heart. So look for Talent to be the next senator.

9. Florida Governor: Jeb Bush versus Bill McBride

AW: The President's political coattails will suffer a blow but George might hit the sauce again if brother Jeb loses his re-election bid. With Katherine Harris a shoe-in for Congress, who will be left to rig the 2004 Presidential race for Georgie Boy? We know the Bush campaign wanted two things: to run against Janet Reno and to not have their daughter smoking crack. Neither of those things happened and Bush now has to run against someone who doesn't self-destruct at the mention of the word Clinton. Crack head daughter aside, look for Bush to squeak out a victory.

MW: Jeb Bush is the Democrat's public enemy number one. McBride has run a safe and smart campaign, and deserves to win. Not because ole Jeb helped deny people their fundamental right to vote, and not because he doesn't have control over his budget or Florida's state departments. Jebadiah deserves to lose because any conservative that preaches family values and doesn't have enough love or compassion to show up at his daughter's hearing, should be punished. In the name of justice, Jeb begins the fall of the Bush dynasty.

10. Arkansas Senate: Tim Hutchinson versus Mark Pryor

AW: Can't think of a better way for a Clinton hater and basher to go out than losing a campaign when the key issue is his affair and eventual marriage to a former aide. That's what Tim Hutchinson faces in Arkansas, that and going up against the son of a popular Senator. The GOP has thrown all sorts of non-issues Pryor's way like an endorsement he received from the non-violent Council for a Livable World. Imagine that, getting attacked for promoting a peaceful world. How not post-9/11 of you Mark. Throw in the kitchen sink if you must because, Tim, if it looks like a lame duck and talks like a lame duck, then it must be Tim Hutchinson. Thanks for playing, here's your pension and one-way ticket back to Little Rock.

MW: If my memory serves me correctly, Arkansas was one of the dumbest states in the Union. So while this should be a lock for the Dems, I'm not sure that A) these people are smart enough to vote, B) that they're smart enough to realize the elephant in the room irony of this race and act on it, and C) if they're smart enough to realize that diddling your cousin is one thing, and diddling your co-worker is……well, nevermind.

(Alexander Washburn and Mike Webb are volunteer staff writers for 2 Walls Webzine)